The 2026 "Expiry Cliff": IRCC Data Reveals a Massive Surge in Expiring Work Permits

Jan 21, 2026

As we move through 2026, a new set of data released by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has sent a clear signal to the business community and temporary residents alike: we are officially approaching an "expiry cliff."


According to internal IRCC data, the number of work permits set to expire in 2026 is staggering. For employers relying on foreign talent and for the workers themselves, these numbers represent a looming administrative and legal hurdle that requires immediate, proactive planning.


The Numbers: A Million-Person Event


The sheer volume of status transitions required in 2026 is unprecedented. The data shows that a total of 926,896 work permits and extensions are scheduled to lapse throughout the year.


A closer look at the quarterly breakdown for 2026 reveals a front-loaded surge that will likely strain IRCC processing times to their limits:


  • Q1 2026: 314,538 expiries

  • Q2 2026: 289,395 expiries

  • Q3 2026: 195,296 expiries

  • Q4 2026: 127,667 expiries


In contrast, the projections for 2027 show a significant drop-off to a total of 254,455 expiries, reflecting the broader policy shifts aimed at reducing the overall temporary resident population in Canada.


Who is Most Impacted?


The vast majority of those facing expiry in 2026 are part of the International Mobility Program (IMP). This category alone accounts for 476,967 initial work permits and an additional 371,449 extensions set to expire in 2026. These individuals represent a massive portion of the specialized talent and post-graduate workforce currently driving the Canadian economy.


By comparison, the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP)—which requires a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA)—accounts for 59,807 initial permits and 18,673 extensions expiring in the same year.


Why Strategy is Your Only Protection


With nearly one million permits expiring in a single year, "waiting and seeing" is the riskiest move an applicant or employer can make. The sheer volume of applications hitting the system simultaneously means that processing bottlenecks are almost a certainty.


If your work permit is set to expire in 2026 or 2027, you must move beyond simple compliance and start thinking strategically. Here is how you should be preparing right now:


  • Implement a 6-Month Planning Window: Do not wait until 30 or 60 days before your expiry date. Given the 2026 bottleneck, you should begin reviewing your options and gathering documentation at least six months in advance. This buffer is essential for navigating unexpected delays or policy changes.


  • Audit Your Professional History: Review every application you have submitted to IRCC to date. Ensure that your current role, job duties, and employment history are documented with absolute precision. In a high-volume year, even a minor oversight can lead to a refusal that you don't have time to fix.


  • Passport and Document Readiness: Check the expiration date on your passport today. IRCC will not issue a work permit that exceeds your passport's validity. If your passport expires shortly after your current permit, renew it immediately to ensure you can maximize any potential extension.


  • Employer Coordination: If you are on an employer-specific permit, your employer must be an active part of your strategy. Verify that they are prepared for the renewal process and that all corporate information is updated and ready for inspection.


  • The Fragility of Maintained Status: While applying for an extension before your permit expires allows you to continue working under "maintained status," this status is not bulletproof. Leaving Canada or filing an incomplete application can end your right to work instantly. Your strategy must account for these risks.


Final Thoughts


The 2026 expiry surge is a wake-up call. With nearly one million people facing a change in status, the competition for spots and renewals will be fiercer than ever. You cannot afford to be reactive. Strategic planning—done months in advance—is the only way to manage your status and protect your future in Canada.


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About the Author


I’m Ahmet Faruk Ocak, a Canadian immigration lawyer and the founder of Blacksy Immigration Law Firm 🌊. 


At Blacksy, we specialize in providing honest, straightforward, and tailored immigration solutions to individuals and businesses worldwide. Our brand promise is simple: no unnecessary fuss, no false hopes, and no empty promises—just realistic, reliable guidance to help you achieve your immigration goals.


Whether you’re expanding your business to Canada, transferring top talent, or planning your future here, we’re here to guide you with precision, transparency, and care.


Visit us at www.blacksyimmigration.com to learn more or to start your journey.


The articles on this site are general information, not legal advice, and reading them doesn’t create a lawyer-client relationship. Immigration rules change often, so always consult a qualified Canadian immigration lawyer about your specific situation.